Thank you for choosing
The International Currency Outlook. We take great pride
in helping our readers stay on top of the twists and turns in
the global forex markets. Let us explain what this product — and
the Elliott Wave Principle — can do for you.
Our goal is to help
make your day rewarding by revealing the probable price direction
in each market. The International Currency Outlook’s
[DAILY], [WEEKLY] and [MONTHLY]
comments and [INTRADAY] updates paint a picture
of where the major rates are likely to go, reveal how confident
the current evidence allows us to be in that timeframe, and define
the price points that will strengthen or negate our forecast.
The [OVERVIEW] page summarizes the outlooks in
each timeframe for one market, and lists resistance and support
levels.
On the individual pages
for each currency, charts and commentary address the probable
price path in the various time frames. The highlighted single
[Brief] line tells you in a few words what price
movement is due next. We then explain in plain English what the
developing pattern implies and what price path is most likely
over the next day or few days. At important junctures, the larger
pattern is also highlighted. The short-term charts and commentary
will be updated every day, while the longer-term charts will be
refreshed as needed, i.e. to adjust the wave count or illustrate
big moves. The
[INTRADAY] page updates our views on the major
currencies -- as and when market action dictates -- around the
clock.
[Timeframes]
In the International
Currency Outlook, the "Daily" timeframe refers
to the movement due over about the next 3-5 days.
The "Weekly"
timeframe refers to the movement due over about the next 3-5 weeks.
The "Monthly"
timeframe refers to the movement due over about the next 3-5 months.
Elliott forecasting
is in essence a weighing of probabilities, and you should know
how much confidence a particular situation allows. Accordingly,
we offer a [Confidence Level] for the forecast
price movement based on a simple model which looks at how well
the wave count is unfolding. If the possible wave counts point
in the same direction, the Confidence Level will be high. When
multiple wave counts that send conflicting messages are available,
the Confidence Level will be low.
You can also gauge
our degree of confidence from the tone of the language used. For
example, if we say something "will" happen, it displays
an extraordinarily high degree of conviction. Most of the time
the balance of the evidence allows us to say something "will
likely" happen, implying the event to be 60-70% probable.
If we say "the odds slightly favor" a particular outcome,
this softer tone describes a situation that falls closer to the
neutral category, i.e. 55% probable. When we cannot make a useful
forecast, we say so.
The listed [Support]
and [Resistance] levels are derived from the
wave structure, Fibonacci projections and retracements, and previous
low volume price zones, i.e. inflection points. You will be amazed
at how reliably and precisely a market will pay its respects to
strong clusters of targets.
We include our email
addresses in case you have specific questions regarding a particular
forecast or need clarification on any point related to our work.
Thanks again for choosing The International Currency Outlook.
Note:
At Elliott Wave International, we pride ourselves on independent
and objective analysis. These values extend throughout our analytical
department, so there is not "house wave count" that
each analyst must be in line with. Our analysts are free to interpret
and forecast markets based upon their personal experience and
skill, using the Wave Principle and supporting technical analysis.
That means
on occasion, two EWI analysts may arrive at different conclusions
for the same market. Usually an apparent conflict turns out to
be simply a matter of analysts addressing a different time
frame. Yet there are times when two analysts do differ sharply
in their interpretation of a pattern. Such differences are usually
resolved in the short run as continuing market action makes clear
which of the interpretations is actually unfolding; some resolve
more slowly.
We treasure
the complete independence and objectivity of our analysis. Thought-provoking
research is what EWI is all about. Every day, we strive to meet
the exceptional high standards of analysis set forth by Bob Prechter
when he started our firm in 1979.
